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Audience

Investing in a world of (Brexit) uncertainty

12/12/2019

Recent history is rich with examples of misjudgements about outcomes of political events, as markets do not always react in the way even experienced participants might expect.

  • Many investors focus on a top-down ‘forecast’ or ‘view-based’ investing approach, seeking to identify the path of key economic variables, the push and pull of political and central bank policy stresses, and to anticipate what they may mean for markets
  • Yet forecasting can be fraught with uncertainty in the political arena, and can lead to erroneous assumptions. We believe that applying forecasts can introduce significant volatility into returns
  • We make the case for navigating elevated uncertainty surrounding outcomes and reactions, by focusing on the value available for the risks that prevail, and retaining ‘dry powder’ to take advantage of opportunities that arise

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